The OnyxValue article library.
13 published articles: strategy explanations, historical analysis and dated portfolio updates. Read each original on Substack.
Allocation posts are dated historical records. They do not state today’s holdings.
OnyxValue November Allocation: Staying Defensive in Gold and Managed Futures
The allocation update published on November 1, 2026, describing defensive positioning in gold and managed futures and a chart through October against SPY. Preserved as a dated historical record, not a statement of current holdings or a current recommendation.
Dated allocation · Read on Substack ↗Taxes & trading costs ·Can a Systematic ETF Strategy Beat Buy and Hold After Taxes?
A historical comparison of systematic ETF investing and buy and hold under four simplified tax scenarios, including trading costs and a final sale. Explains the assumptions, limitations and relevance of retirement accounts; simulated results are separate from live returns.
Historical tax analysis · Read on Substack ↗Allocation archive ·OnyxShield Activated: Target Allocation 50% Gold, 50% Managed Futures
The OnyxShield activation announcement published on October 26, 2026. Preserved as a dated historical allocation update, not a statement of current holdings or a current recommendation.
Dated allocation · Read on Substack ↗Research & robustness ·A Good Backtest Was Only the Beginning
How sensitivity checks, alternative settings, investment-universe comparisons and reconstructed return paths were used to challenge the historical analysis behind OnyxValue. Development evidence remains separate from actual investment results.
Research & methodology · Read on Substack ↗Investing & withdrawals ·My Portfolio Has to Pay the Bills. That Changes How I Invest.
Why a portfolio that funds living expenses needs more than an annual return figure. Connects daily drawdowns, recovery periods and withdrawals with a monthly ETF routine and daily risk monitoring; historical examples are shown before costs and taxes.
Personal perspective · Read on Substack ↗Retirement & withdrawals ·What If You Retire Just Before a Crash?
What early losses mean when withdrawals continue. A historical analysis with stated spending assumptions and the trade-offs of defensive positioning.
Historical analysis · Read on Substack ↗Risk management ·When Portfolio Protection Paid for Itself
A historical comparison of OnyxEngine with and without OnyxShield, alongside an equity benchmark. Examines the benefits, costs and limitations of defensive rules.
Historical analysis · Read on Substack ↗Allocation archive ·OnyxValue: October Allocation
The portfolio allocation published for October 2026. A dated record of the strategy's decisions, rather than a statement of today's holdings.
Dated allocation · Read on Substack ↗Portfolio design ·Why OnyxValue Chooses Two ETF Winners Instead of Ten Holdings
The evidence and design behind OnyxEngine's two-holding approach and the role of its two investment groups.
Strategy explanation · Read on Substack ↗Investor psychology ·Why I Invest My Own Money With Rules, Not Predictions.
Why the ability to stay with a strategy matters alongside returns, and why I use predefined rules for my own capital.
Personal perspective · Read on Substack ↗Allocation archive ·2026 results & September allocation
The results and September allocation as published in September 2026. Archived for context; this is not a current portfolio update.
Dated update · Read on Substack ↗Following the strategy ·The 15-Minute-a-Month ETF System Behind the Result
What the monthly ETF selection and daily risk monitoring involve, what subscribers receive, and when an additional portfolio change may be needed.
Implementation guide · Read on Substack ↗Returns & drawdowns ·From $100,000 to 263.9 Million- And the Number That Mattered More.
An introduction to the long historical analysis, with attention to both compounding and the losses experienced along the way. Historical figures are separate from live results.
Historical analysis · Read on Substack ↗Historical analyses are hypothetical and depend on their stated assumptions. They are separate from live investment results. Investing involves the risk of loss.